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Countering a $95k offer with $105k wins $6,750/yr in expected value even at 10% rescind risk — and if it lands, the delta compounds to $114,639 over 10 years.
The counteroffer decision is usually made on fear; run it on expected value. Current $90k, offer $95k, counter $105k: with 55% odds they accept, 35% they split the difference, and 10% they walk, the counter is worth $11,750/yr in expectation versus $5,000 for accepting — countering wins by $6,750 even with a one-in-ten disaster. And the disaster itself is rarer than the fear: polite, market-based counters get rescinded at low-single-digit rates. The kicker is compounding: a landed counter's $10k base delta grows with every future raise — $114,639 over ten years at 3%. One email, six figures. This calculator prices your numbers.
Job candidates use it before accepting: countering a $95k offer with $105k wins $6,750/yr in expected value even at 10% rescind risk — and a landed counter compounds to $114,639 over 10 years of raises.
Rarely enough that it should not drive the decision — but not never, so price it. Recruiters and HR surveys consistently put rescission-over-negotiation in the low single digits when the counter is professional: a specific number, market evidence attached, enthusiasm for the role stated. The patterns that DO get rescinded read as warnings, not negotiations: ultimatums ("I need an answer today" cuts both ways), counters wildly above the posted band (asking $140k against a $95k offer signals a mismatch they cannot fix), repeated re-trading after agreement, and counters at companies already showing red flags — in which case the rescind is information. The mechanical protection: counter once, cleanly, with your evidence (posted ranges, levels.fyi/Glassdoor data), while explicitly confirming you want the job and will accept at $X. Companies expect negotiation — many initial offers carry a deliberate 5–10% negotiation cushion, which is the recruiter admitting the first number is not the real number. Set the rescind input to 5–10% for a sane employer, 15–20% only if the process has already been erratic.
From evidence, anchored precisely. The evidence stack: the posted range if there is one (counter at the 60th–75th percentile of the band, not the top — the top is reserved for candidates with leverage you have not shown), aggregated comp data from levels.fyi for tech, Glassdoor and salary.com elsewhere, and any competing offer or current-salary anchor that is genuinely relevant. The precise-anchoring effect from negotiation research: $103,500 reads as researched and gets accepted or near-split more often than $105,000, which reads as a mood. Never counter with a range — a range invites them to the bottom of it. Then stack the non-base asks AFTER the base conversation: signing bonus (easiest yes — one-time money from a different budget), extra PTO week, remote days, title, and an accelerated first review ("6-month review with path to $X") which converts a no on base into a scheduled second bite. One counter, complete, professional — then silence. The person who speaks first after the number is on the table is usually the one who moves.
Take the new job anyway in most cases — the retention statistics on accepted internal counters are bleak. The mechanism: your resignation told your employer you were already looking; the counter buys them time to de-risk your departure, not loyalty from them. The numbers recruiters cite — half or more of counteroffer-accepters leave within 12 months anyway — reflect the trust deficit on both sides: they now see you as flight risk for the next layoff list, and you now know the raise was available only under threat, which answers the "why was I underpaid" question. The cases where accepting the internal counter pencils: the issue was purely money and comp bands (not management, growth, or culture), the counter comes with a real role change or title, and you were not actually eager to leave — you were underpaid, not unhappy. The clean play if you want to stay: negotiate the raise BEFORE interviewing elsewhere, with market data; an external offer used as leverage is a card you can play once, and playing it while preferring to stay bluffs with your employer's trust. This calculator prices the external counter; the internal one needs the raise-worth math plus a discount for the trust deficit.