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The cheaper premium is not the cheaper plan. Run the year, not the month.
Open enrollment forces a bet on your health for the next 12 months. This calculator prices both plans across the whole year — premiums plus what you would actually pay at your expected usage — and finds the break-even bill level where the answer flips.
Anyone choosing between an HDHP and a PPO uses it to price the whole year instead of comparing monthly premiums. The break-even bill level is the number HR departments never show you.
When the annual premium savings exceed the extra exposure. Compare premium gap (×12) against the deductible gap: if premiums save $2,400/yr and the deductible is $2,500 higher, the HDHP wins in any year you stay healthy and roughly breaks even in a bad one — plus it unlocks the HSA, worth $1,300+/yr more in tax savings at a 30% rate.
Copay structures (common in PPOs for office visits and prescriptions), network differences, and employer HSA contributions — an employer seed of $1,000 into the HSA is real money that belongs in the Plan A column. Also check whether your specific doctors and drugs are covered; no math fixes a bad network.
Pull last year's explanation-of-benefits statements and total the allowed amounts, then adjust for known changes (a planned surgery, a new prescription, a pregnancy). Then run three scenarios: healthy year (routine visits only), expected year, and bad year (hit the out-of-pocket max). The right plan wins your expected year without catastrophic regret in the bad one.