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The honest version: at average rates, the heat pump can lose. Here is when it wins.
Heat pump content splits into marketing ("always saves!") and backlash ("never works!") — the truth is rate-dependent and this calculator shows it. Enter your actual gas usage and both energy prices, and it computes delivered-heat cost for each system, the annual difference, and the breakeven on the installation premium — including the factor that usually decides real projects: whether the heat pump also replaces a dying air conditioner.
Homeowners facing a furnace replacement use it with the gas bill in hand: the answer is genuinely rate-dependent — the heat pump loses at some price combinations and wins big at others — and the avoided-AC-replacement offset is the factor HVAC quotes leave out.
No. The §25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit — up to $2,000 for heat pumps — ended December 31, 2025, under OBBBA. Any contractor quote still showing a federal credit line is working from 2025 numbers. State and utility heat pump rebates (often $500–$8,000, especially in the Northeast and Northwest) are still active — check DSIRE and your utility before pricing the project.
It depends on the price ratio, not the technology. Example: 700 therms/yr through a 92% furnace at $1.50/therm costs $1,050; a COP-2.8 heat pump at 17¢/kWh delivers the same heat for $1,146 — $96/yr more. Drop electricity to 12¢ and the heat pump saves $241/yr. Raise gas to $2.20/therm with 15¢ power and it saves $529/yr, paying back a $5,500 premium in about 10 years. Run your rates, not national talking points.
Three cases. One: cheap electricity (hydro and nuclear regions under ~12¢/kWh). Two: expensive gas ($2+/therm — most of the Northeast and California) or propane/oil heat, where the savings are larger. Three, the most common winner: your AC is also dying. A heat pump IS an air conditioner that runs backwards — subtracting a $5,000 avoided AC replacement from the premium turns a marginal project into a 1–2 year payback. Below about 5°F, COP falls toward 1, so cold climates often choose dual-fuel: heat pump above the balance point, furnace below.