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Price Raise Churn Math

A 10% raise with 5% churn adds $29,700/yr of profit — and tolerates losing 28.6% of clients before it stops winning. Your churn fear is not priced correctly.

The raise-your-prices decision is mirror-image of the discount trap: price increases flow almost entirely to margin because cost per client does not rise. The math at the defaults — 200 clients at $150/mo, 25% margin, a 10% raise with 5% churn — profit climbs $29,700 a year WHILE serving 10 fewer clients, and the raise keeps winning until churn passes 28.6%. Real churn on a well-handled raise runs 2–8%, not the 20% owners imagine. And the clients who do leave are disproportionately the slow-paying, high-support ones — the churn you get is the churn you wanted. This calculator prices your raise, your churn, and your breakeven.

Why people use this

Business owners use it before the price-increase letter: a 10% raise with 5% churn adds $29,700/yr and tolerates 28.6% churn before losing — the clients who leave over $15/mo were your most expensive revenue.

How it works

  1. Enter client count, average price, and gross margin.
  2. Enter the raise percentage you are considering.
  3. Enter the churn you honestly expect (2–8% is the well-handled range).
  4. Read the profit delta and the breakeven churn — the number your fear should be compared against.

Common questions

How do I raise prices without triggering an exodus?

Handling beats timing, and both beat silence. Notice: 60–90 days minimum — same-month raises read as ambushes and convert grumbling into shopping. Reason with substance: pair the letter with something concrete — a service improvement, faster turnaround, added report — not "costs have gone up" (your costs are not their problem), but what they GET. Grandfather strategically: your best 10–20% of clients by profit get 6 months at the old rate or a smaller bump — retention where it pays, and the gesture generates loyalty worth more than the concession. Confidence is the multiplier: the letter states the new price and the date, full stop — apologetic hedging ("unfortunately," "we hope you understand") invites negotiation, while a matter-of-fact raise with a reason converts. What never works: sneaking it into a renewal without notice (that is how you become the villain in their retelling) and raising during their crisis. Frequency discipline: 5% every year beats 20% every four years — predictable small raises normalize the motion, while the big catch-up raise is the one that triggers the real exodus. The clients lost to a well-handled raise were leaving at the next raise anyway.

Why is the breakeven churn so high?

Because of where the money flows — the same asymmetry that makes discounts deadly, running in your favor. A price raise adds revenue with zero added cost: on a $150 client costing you $112.50 to serve, the 10% raise turns $37.50 of margin into $52.50 — a 40% jump per retained client. Churned clients, meanwhile, take their revenue AND their costs with them: losing a client costs you only the $37.50 margin, not the $150 revenue. So each retained client funds the loss of nearly half a churned one — the breakeven lands at 28.6% in the default case, and higher at thinner margins (a 10% raise at 40% margin tolerates 40%+ churn). The practical read: if your honest churn estimate is single digits — and for well-handled raises to sticky B2B services, it is — the raise is not a risk decision, it is a collection decision: you are already earning the money, you are just not invoicing it. The sensitivity table to run in this calculator: your raise at 5%, 10%, and 15% churn. If it wins at 15%, send the letter.

Which clients should get the raise and which should not?

Segment before you send — a flat raise to a mixed base is leaving money and loyalty on the table. Tier by profitability, not revenue: your per-client margin varies wildly, and the raise should concentrate where the relationship is healthy. Full raise: profitable clients with low service intensity and market-rate alternatives — they stay. Grandfathered or phased: your top-decile relationships — the strategic accounts where 6 extra months at the old price buys goodwill that outvalues the delta. Higher-than-average raise: the below-market legacy clients — the ones priced at 2019 rates who consume 2026 support; either they reprice to reality or they churn, and both outcomes are wins (this is the segment where the breakeven churn math is most forgiving). Deliberate churn pricing: the genuinely unprofitable — slow payers, scope-creepers, support hogs — get the aggressive number; if they leave, profit rises, and if they stay, they finally pay for themselves. The analysis to run first: revenue and true cost-to-serve per client (support tickets, payment slowness, revision cycles) — most owners can name their top ten revenue clients and not their top ten profit clients, and the lists rarely match. The make-ready principle applies here: know your numbers per client before the letter, and the letter writes itself.

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