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One turnover at $1,800 rent costs $2,947 — 13.6% of the year. A $50/mo raise that pushes turnover odds past 20% LOSES money. Retention is the cheapest revenue.
Landlords track rent to the dollar and turnover to the vague. The honest ledger: at $1,800/month with a 3-week vacancy, lost rent alone is $1,247; add $1,500 of paint-clean-locks and $200 of listing and screening, and one turnover burns $2,947 — 13.6% of the year's rent, more than most landlords budget for maintenance. The number changes pricing behavior: a $50/month renewal raise gains $600/yr but forfeits $2,947 if it triggers a move, so the raise only wins if turnover odds stay under 20%. This calculator prices your turnover and gives the breakeven odds for any raise you are considering.
Landlords use it before setting renewal raises: one turnover at $1,800 rent costs $2,947 — 13.6% of the year — so a $50/mo raise that pushes turnover odds past 20% loses money.
Four buckets, and rent loss is usually the biggest. Vacancy: rent × vacant weeks ÷ 4.33 — at $1,800, every vacant week is $416; even efficient turnovers need 2 weeks for cleaning, showing, and application processing. Make-ready work: $500 for a DIY clean-and-touch-up on a good tenant's unit, $1,500–2,500 for paint-plus-professional-clean on a lived-in one, $4,000+ when flooring or an appliance dies with the tenancy. Leasing: listing fees, background and credit checks you eat on rejected applicants, and signage — $100–300 DIY, or 50–100% of one month's rent if a property manager places the tenant. The invisible bucket: your time — self-managers report 20–40 hours per turnover across showings, applications, and coordination; value it honestly and the total roughly doubles. Long-tenancy discount: tenants past 3 years need less make-ready (paint lasts) but their departure usually means a fuller refresh — the work cost rises with tenure while the frequency falls.
The breakeven odds are the discipline: annual raise gain ÷ turnover cost. At the defaults, a $50/mo raise tolerates only a 20% turnover probability — so the question is never "can I get market rent" but "what does this raise do to THIS tenant's odds of leaving." A good tenant at 2–3% annual raises is usually worth more than market rent with churn; a below-market tenant who never calls, pays on the first, and stays six years is a better asset than a topped-out rent roll. Push harder when: the unit is genuinely underpriced (10%+ below comps), turnover costs are LOW (easy market, fast make-ready, strong applicant pool), or the tenant has signaled staying regardless (just renewed willingly, bought furniture, kids in the school). The move that captures both: offer the modest raise paired with a visible upgrade — a $200 ceiling fan or a dishwasher swap at renewal converts the raise from a tax into a trade, and trades do not trigger moving math the way taxes do.
The research and the landlord forums agree on the ranking, and it is not rent price. First: repair response time — the single strongest predictor of non-renewal is how the last maintenance request went; same-day acknowledgment with a real timeline beats a cheap rent number. Second: proactive renewal timing — send the renewal 90 days out with a modest raise and a small upgrade offer; tenants forced to think about moving early start browsing, tenants offered a fair deal early sign. Third: professional but human management — enforce rules consistently, fix common areas, return deposits promptly with itemization (word travels in tenant networks). Fourth: price honestly at listing — overpriced units attract applicants nobody else approved, who churn and damage more. What does NOT move retention much: amenity race upgrades mid-tenancy, gift cards, and personal rapport without operational competence behind it. Run the turnover number, then fund retention from what it saves.